9.1. DATA:
9.1.1. Population data for Boundary County used in this analysis is current through 2003. Extrapolations and predictions of future trends are estimates based on this 2003 data.
9.1.2. Over a 35-year period, Boundary County’s population rose from 5,417 in 1969, to 10,172 in 2003, for a net gain of 4,755, or 87.8%. This trailed Idaho’s increase of 93.4%, but outpaced the national increase of 44.5%. Boundary County’s population comprised 0.77% of the overall state population in 1969, declining to 0.74% in 2003.
9.2. POPULATION GROWTH: From 1969 to 2003, Boundary County experienced an average annual growth rate of 1.91%. During the 1970s, Boundary County’s annual population growth rate averaged 2.88%, declining to 1.68% in the 1980s, and 1990s and 1.15% through the first three years of this decade. Relative to nationwide population growth trends, Boundary County led the nation during the 1970s, with 2.88% growth versus 1.10%; registered above the nation in the 1980s (1.48% versus 0.95%), and exceeded the nation both in the 1990s, 1.68% versus 1.23%, and from 2000 to 2003, 1.15% to 1.04%. Based on current trends as evidenced by recent local development, it is reasonable to assume that growth in Boundary County will continue, with another boom in population as occurred in the 1970s through the remainder of this decade a high probability.
9.3. GROWTH RATES: Population studies indicate an aging population in Boundary County, with the 45 to 49 year old age category experiencing the highest rate of increase of change over the decade from 1990 to 2000 at a total rate climb of 3.8%. The only other age bracket showing a significant increase is the 40 to 54 year old category, which increased 3.4%. The age group showing the highest decrease in population change over the decade was the 35 to 39 year old category, which dropped by 2.2%, followed by the 30 to 34 year old category, which declined 1.8% over the decade.
9.4. POPULATION TRENDS: Based on recent growth trends and an analysis of those currently moving into the community, it is reasonable to predict that Boundary County’s population will continue to age, as young people setting out on their own predominantly continue to leave the community to pursue higher education or more profitable job markets, while the highest population influx will continue to be those who are retiring or are about to retire. This analysis is buttressed by the marked growth in “non-labor” income, which includes dividends, interest, rent and transfer payments, which include age-related government payments (including Medicare), disability insurance payments and retirement payments. In the last three decades, non-labor income has climbed at an average annual rate of 4.3%, outpacing traditional labor sources, including agriculture and timber, which grew at a 1.4% rate. In 2003, 42.8% of total personal income in Boundary County was from non-labor sources. In 1970, non-labor income accounted for about 23% of total non-labor sources, and in that period, 60.6% of new income was derived from non-labor sources.
9.5. INCOME DISTRIBUTION:
9.5.1. In 1999, for every household that made over $100,000 in annual income, there were 14.5 households earning under $30,000 in annual income. In 1989, for every household earning over $100,000, there were 132.5 households bringing in less than $30,000. (Figures not adjusted for inflation).
9.5.2. The number of households in Boundary County earning less that $10,000 a year declined between 1989 and 1999, from 580 to 476, but this category continues to be the most prevalent income bracket in Boundary County. The income bracket showing the largest gain was among households earning $50,000 to $59,999, with 163 falling in that bracket in 1989, to 393 in 1999. While they comprise the fewest families, all households in the higher income brackets posted gains, with those earning $150,000 or more per year climbing from 7 in 1989 to 70 in 1999.
9.5.3. In contrast, the housing affordability index, which suggests that the median family can afford a median house, declined in the decade from 1990 to 2000. In 1990, the median value of a home was $63,900, and the income required to reasonably afford such a house was $21,552, for an affordability index rating of 155 (100 or above means the median family can afford the median house.); in 2000, the median value of a home had risen to $96,900, requiring an annual income of $27,381, decreasing the affordability index to 133. Which the sudden surge in land and home prices in 2004, it is reasonable to predict that the affordability index rating will decline further.
Sources: University of Washington Extension Service: Northwest Income Indicators Project; Sonoran Institute’s Economic Profile System: “A SocioEconomic Profile: Boundary County, Idaho”